UNIVERSITY
OF ST. THOMAS
Course Syllabus for:
MMSE/ETM 799
Location:
Campus: St. Paul
Room OSS LL10
Dates January 3 to April 11, 2002
Time:
Days Thursdays
Hours 5:30 – 8:30
Instructor Name: Earl C. Joseph
Instructor Qualifications:
Academic Professor: University of St. Thomas,
Walden University, and Metropolitan State University
Industry 32 Years - Sperry Univac Computer Scientist and Designer, Director, Project Manager
(Engineering, Manufacturing, & Programming), Programmer, and Futurist; 16
years as President, Anticipatory Sciences Inc.
Instructor Phones:
Home (651)
290-2846
Office: (651)
290-2846
e-mail ejoseph@waldenu.edu
Instructor Address:
Home & Office 365 Summit Ave.
St.
Paul, MN 55102
Instructor’s Office Hours: Most any time, day or evening, Call to discuss course or to set-up a meeting; instructor does
not have an office at the University but can meet with students.
Department Chair:
Name Ronald J. Bennett, Ph.D.
Phone (651) 962-5762
E-mail rjbennett@stthomas.edu
Department Secretary:
Name Kelly
O’Toole
Phone (651)
962-5755
E-mail kaotoole@stthomas.edu
Text:
Handouts and information
accessed on the WEB
Supplemental Material: Copies of slides from class presentations
Pre-requisites: Students should have university
level skills (writing, verbal, presentation, etc.). No prior experience with forecasting is needed. However, the ability to use computer word
processing, e-mail, and use of the Internet/Web is required for the assignments
and to obtain course text material to read.
Knows and understands
the basic concepts of qualitative forecasting useful for engineering
technology, systems engineering, and manufacturing management and business
(plus in special areas of interest to students attending). Knows basic concepts of developing and
emerging technology, business and manufacturing management futures and methods
for their forecasting, including knowledge of trends, possible alternatives,
forces-of-change, plans and strategies; is prepared to assist in bringing about
desirable business futures and has an outlook for business alternatives. Knows
qualitative forecasting methods including trend projecting, Delphi analysis,
content analysis and projection, scenario development, and much more.
Course Content
Course Description: The primary goal of this course is
to give students the background necessary to function effectively in
environments which rely on knowledge of possible futures. Although this course will not make a student
an expert futurist/forecaster, it is designed to enable a student to develop
forecasts, communicate with such experts and understand (evaluate) their
output. The skills gained should be
sufficient for a student to become an active participant in the selection of
forecasts most useful to their career area and the institution they will be
involved with throughout their career.
This course will prepare a student to enter more advanced
courses. It will also assist in
providing knowledge for understanding the impacts -- both positive and negative
-- of changing future events and advances in technology, organizations, and in
society. A typical student will also
get some rudimentary “hands-on” exposure in the use of a variety of forecasting
forecasting, cases, and business decision making for assisting in creating “better” futures.
Learning Outcomes: Upon successfully completing this
course, students should possess knowledge of:
• how
to continually increase their knowledge about forecasting and
emerging/developing futures
• manufacturing
management use of qualitative forecasting
• has
a working knowledge about strategic planning
• understands
future trends and alternative futures, management, and societal impacts and
consequences of possible futures.
Student Responsibilities
· Student is responsible for
pre-requisite knowledge.
· Students are responsible for
information in the syllabus, readings, and class assignments and tects.
· Students must complete all
assignments for the class.
· Students are expected to have
completed assigned readings and assignments prior to each class meeting (except
for the first class).
· Notify instructor in advance if
unable to meet deadlines.
· Students are expected to attend each
lecture and to participate in class discussions. Students should notify the instructor in advance if there
is a conflict for scheduled tests or assignment deadlines.
· Students with any special learning
needs must notify the instructor in writing at the start of the course. Accommodations will be made within
reasonable limits.
· All Metro State students should have
a current, valid public library card.
Minneapolis, St. Paul, and county libraries offer on-line catalogs and
many CD-ROM article indexes, some full-text.
Students can use personal
computers with modems to dial-up library catalogs at home or may use Metro
State Academic Computer Centers
· Students can also use University of
St. Thomas resources while on site.
· Plagiarism or cheating is not
expected nor allowed
Faculty Responsibilities:
· The instructor will come prepared to
all classes. If the instructor is
unable to attend a class meeting, every attempt will be made to find a
substitute instructor. If no substitute
can be found, students will be notified prior to the class meeting.
· The instructor will return graded
assignments within a reasonable time period.
· Instructor will answer telephone
messages within a reasonable time period, unless absence is indicated on the
answering machine.
· The instructor will be available for
pre-arranged student meetings at student requests.
Course Evaluation:
Task %
of Total Grade
Mid-Quarter 20%
Final exam 20%
Paper 20%
Class/Other Exercises 20%
Class Participation 20%
·
Incompletes: Students must complete all
exercises, paper, Mid-Quarter Exam, and Final Exam to obtain a grade, if not an
incomplete is given.
·
Assignments: Papers and exercises not done in
class should be word-processed using a computer.
·
Late Assignments: Must complete all within a week after when due.
·
Extra Credit Opportunities: A number are offered in class and
in the exams.
·
Final Grade Criteria: Based on points per assignment on
content of submitted effort.
·
Appeals: Talk to instructor first; if not
satisfied, follow University of St. Thomas guidelines.
·
Cheating and Plagiarism: Not expected nor allowed.
Evaluation Policies: Any student who wants a narrative
evaluation in addition to a lettergrade must have designated this at the time
of registration. Explanation of letter
grades:
· A or A- excellent work
· B+, B, or B- good work
· C+, C, or C- adequate work
· D partially
adequate work (but below competence level)
· F unworthy of credit
Class Cancellation or
Schedule Changes: If
the school is closed due to bad weather, it will be announced. Some topic schedules may change and will be
announced by the instructor.
Class Session Details
Date:
Readings: Access
and read: Course syllabus and Handouts
Assignments Due: Class exercisers
Learning Objectives: 1) Introduction to forecasting, 2) historical perspectives, 3) some
basic philosophy, and 4) some modern
approaches.
Class Activities: Introductions (instructor and students), who we are and the
reason for taking this class; lecture; class exercises.
Assignments 1:
Access and read: http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/001/forecast.html;
http://www.furman.edu/~stanford/h1.htm
Class 2: Theoretical Foundations
Date:
Readings Due: Handouts
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class
exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Ancient roots of future studies,
2) basic foundations and philosophy, and 3) some modern directions and
philosophy.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: http://www.mnfuturists.org/tutorial05.htm;
http://www.gematel.com/Edisi22/ArtikelLepas/lepas1-e.html;
Class 3: Trend Forecasting
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Trend forecasting basics, 2)
trend forecasting curves and language,
3) trend forecasting applications, and 4) some trends.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: http://www.mnfuturists.org/tutorial05.htm;
http://tpac.gcatt.gatech.edu/papers/techforcast.html;
http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/
Class 4:Scenarion Forecasting
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Scenario forecasting basic methodology, 2) scenario forecasting
philosophy, and 3) some scenarios
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: http://www.wfs.org/barner.htm;
http://www.strategeeze.com/scenario.htm;
http://www-marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/standardshort.pdf
Class 5:Understanding Change
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due:
Learning Objectives: 1) Changes cause the future to change, 2) change is what
forecasts forecast, 3) challenges of change in forecasting, 4) change
defined,5) forces-of-change, and emergig and developing issues (threats and
opportunities).
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: http://www.informationweek.com/story/IWK20011005S0006,
http://www.gov.on.ca/OMAFRA/english/rural/facts/91-014.htm,
http://www.scottlondon.com/reports/change.html,
http://online.northumbria.ac.uk/faculties/art/information_studies/impel/change1.htm
Class 6: Strategic Planning
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Forecasts are involved in strategy planning, 3) strategic planning
and forecasting philosophy, 4) critical success factor forecasting, 5) SWOT
analysis, and 6) strategic planning processes.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 7: Trends Versus Fads
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Is it a fad or an emerging
trend?, and 2) fads and trends defined.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next
meeting: To be
announced
Class 8:Technology Forecasting
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Methods of technology forecasting, 2) engineering technology
forecasts, 3) computer impact on forecasting, and 4) some laws used in
technology forecasting.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 9:Human/Staff Development Futures
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Forecasts of human development, 2) human development forecasting,
and 3) forecasting core competencies.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 10: System and Organization Development
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Systems philosophies, 2) social systems and organizational futures,
3) organizational development, 4) forecasting and general systems, and 5) some current and future
organizational forms.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 11: Business Forecasting
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Forecasting methods for business, 2) best practice forecasting, 3)
competitive intelligence forecasting, 4) some business forecasts, 5) business
trends and alternative futures, and 6) some business forecasts
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 12: Manufacturing Forecasting
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Manufacturing development forecasting, 2) technology advances impact
on manufacturing, 3) manufacturing trends and forecasts, and 4) some
alternative forecasts for manufacturing.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 13: Road-Mapping Futures
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Developing future road maps, 2) future wheels, 3) PERT, and 4)
future time lines.
Class Activities: Discussions and class exercises
Assignments for next meeting: To be announced
Class 14: Special Topics
Date:
Readings Due:
Assignments Due: Assigned exercisers and class exercises
Learning Objectives: 1) Discussion of additional topics students desired to be added and 2)
future perspectives on forecasting.
Class Activities: 1) Lecture and 2) Final Test.